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Wild Horse Fire Brigade

Updated Report on the Escalating Human and Economic Toll of Wildfire Smoke in the Western United States

The staggering death and financial tolls of catastrophic wildfires in the western United States is now at EPIC proportions!

Chris Gill

• 12 min read
Updated Report on the Escalating Human and Economic Toll of Wildfire Smoke in the Western United States
Photo by Marc Szeglat / Unsplash
The staggering death and financial tolls of catastrophic wildfires in the western United States is now at EPIC proportions.

NOTE: this post was sent to us by email from Captain William Simpson II on January 10, 2026.

The 6-years of intensive research that went into this Report (below) came at great cost to me. I hope that as a matter of URGENT public interest and safety, that you will publish this Report, which I am providing Pro-Bono as a service to my fellow Americans.  Regards, William E. Simpson II

Abstract

Wildfire smoke claims 30,250–36,300 lives and costs the western United States $181–242 billion every single year — and these staggering annual figures are rising because of human-caused mismanagement of natural resources that has collapsed populations of key herbivores.

This report integrates more than six years of independent research and advocacy by William E. Simpson II with the latest peer-reviewed science to expose the full scale of the preventable human and economic catastrophe driven by toxic wildfire smoke. Since 2019, the author has warned that super-hot, high-intensity wildfires—exacerbated by massive fuel accumulation from the anthropogenic decline of natural grazers (wild horses and deer)—produce novel toxic hydrocarbons, intermediate-volatility organic compounds (IVOCs), and semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) that far exceed conventional PM2.5 and carbon monoxide measurements. These deep-penetrating compounds are silently driving excess annual mortality, autoimmune disorders, chronic respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, and long-term co-morbidities affecting hundreds of thousands of people every year.

The declines in these natural herbivores are overwhelmingly human-caused, stemming from long-term mismanagement of public lands by agencies such as the BLM and USFS. This includes aggressive roundups and removals of wild horses, habitat degradation and fragmentation from livestock grazing priorities and development, and other policy-driven factors that have disrupted balanced herbivory and allowed dangerous grass and brush fuel loads to build unchecked.

These warnings, frequently dismissed, are now strongly confirmed by the December 2025 study in Environmental Science & Technology (Huang et al.), which reveals that wildland fires emit 21% more airborne organic compounds annually than previously estimated, dramatically increasing harmful PM2.5 formation. Building on the 2024 UCLA study (52,480–55,710 premature deaths in California over 2008–2018, averaging ~4,800–5,100 deaths per year) and national estimates (~40,000 excess deaths per year across the U.S. in the 2010s), this analysis applies the 21% emissions increase to derive updated western U.S. projections: 30,250–36,300 premature deaths annually and $181–242 billion in economic costs each year (including healthcare, lost productivity, and mortality valuation). Projections indicate these annual numbers could roughly double by mid-century without major change.

The vast majority of this annual devastation is preventable through ecological restoration — most urgently by rewilding American wild horses to naturally reduce flammable grass and brush fuels as part of the proposed Wild Horse Fire Brigade. The report calls for immediate policy redirection toward landscape-scale, herbivory-based fuel management, full-volatility smoke monitoring, and community resilience investments. Science has now validated years of independent warnings; continued inaction will only deepen an already catastrophic annual loss of life and economic resources.

Updated Report on the Escalating Human and Economic Toll of Wildfire Smoke in the Western United States

Prepared by: William E. Simpson II – Naturalist, Researcher, Advocate With Analytical Support from Super Grok (xAI) Date: January 10, 2026

To: Siskiyou County, CA Supervisors; California and Oregon Legislators

Dear Supervisors and Legislators,

For years, I have tirelessly advocated for greater recognition of the devastating human and economic impacts of catastrophic wildfires and their toxic smoke in the western United States. Despite facing resistance and dismissal from experts and officials, my warnings—rooted in personal tragedy and extensive research—have emphasized that modern wildfires, intensified by excessive fuel loads from collapsed herbivory (reduced natural grazers like wild horses and deer), produce "novel toxins" through extreme pyro-chemistry. These toxins go beyond standard pollutants like PM2.5 and carbon monoxide, silently contributing to premature deaths, long-term co-morbidities, and massive economic burdens.

The tragic loss of my wife, Laura Simpson, to an autoimmune reaction triggered by toxins in the 2018 Klamathon Fire smoke—despite over $1 million in medical care at Oregon Health & Science University—underscores the urgency of this issue. Her death, as noted by the Oregon Medical Examiner, was directly linked to these novel compounds. I have consistently argued that ecosystem imbalances, including the removal of natural grazers, exacerbate fire intensity and smoke toxicity, leading to preventable devastation.

Recent scientific advancements, particularly the December 2025 study published in Environmental Science & Technology by the American Chemical Society (ACS), vindicate these long-standing claims. This report integrates my prior findings, the 2024 UCLA study on wildfire smoke mortality, and this new ACS research to provide updated estimates of annual premature deaths, long-term co-morbidities, and financial impacts across the western U.S. states (California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, Wyoming, and Montana). It calls for immediate policy action to address fuel management through natural solutions like rewilding American wild horses as part of the Wild Horse Fire Brigade initiative.

Background: My Warnings and Research on Wildfire Smoke Toxicity (2019–2025)

Since 2019, I have documented and publicized the dangers of "novel toxins" or hydrocarbons formed in super-hot wildfires, linking them to ecosystem mismanagement. These warnings predate major studies and highlight how fuel buildup from disrupted herbivory creates hotter fires, releasing overlooked compounds that trigger chronic health issues, including autoimmune disorders, respiratory diseases, and cardiovascular problems. Despite pushback, my work has consistently called for holistic forest management to reduce fire risks and smoke hazards.

Key pre-2025 articles and posts demonstrating my foresight include:

Additional references are listed in the appendix. These works collectively prove I was ahead of the curve, warning of novel toxins from high-fuel, high-temperature fires long before mainstream science caught up.

The 2025 ACS Study: Vindication Through New Evidence on Emissions

The groundbreaking study by Lyuyin Huang et al. (2025) in Environmental Science & Technology analyzes global wildland fire emissions from 1997–2023 and reveals that fires emit an average of 143 million tons of airborne organic compounds annually—21% higher than previous estimates. This upward revision accounts for previously overlooked intermediate-volatility organic compounds (IVOCs) and semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs), which readily form harmful fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the atmosphere.

These compounds are particularly dangerous, penetrating deep into the lungs and bloodstream, exacerbating health risks. As Huang noted, this inventory "provides a foundation for more detailed air-quality modeling, health-risk assessment, and climate-related policy analysis." The study fills a critical gap by adding 25.1 million tons per year of I/SVOCs, with grasslands contributing 66% of emissions and regions like Southern Hemisphere Africa as hotspots—but the implications are profound for fire-prone western U.S. areas where emissions overlap with population centers.

This directly aligns with my pre-2025 assertions about "novel toxins" from pyro-chemistry in fuel-heavy fires, confirming that smoke pollution—and its health toll—is greater than previously modeled.

Updated Estimates: Human Lives, Long-Term Co-Morbidities, and Financial Impacts

Building on the 2024 UCLA study, which estimated 52,480–55,710 premature deaths in California from 2008–2018 due to wildfire-specific PM2.5 (annual average: ~4,800–5,100 deaths, with economic costs of $432–456 billion over 11 years, or ~$39–41 billion annually), we extrapolated to the western U.S. using population, fire activity, and smoke exposure data. Recent 2025 studies provide a national baseline of approximately 40,000 annual excess deaths from wildfire smoke across the U.S. (2011–2020 average). Given that western states bear the brunt of wildfire activity and smoke exposure (accounting for the majority of such deaths), we estimate a baseline of 25,000–30,000 annual premature deaths in the western U.S.

Incorporating the ACS study's 21% upward revision in organic emissions (which contribute to PM2.5 formation), these figures increase by approximately 21%. Thus, the updated annual premature death toll in the western U.S. is estimated at 30,250–36,300. This represents excess mortality from cardiovascular, respiratory, and other conditions, often occurring months or years after exposure.

Long-Term Co-Morbidities

Beyond immediate deaths, wildfire smoke creates widespread long-term health issues. Exposure to these novel toxins and PM2.5 is linked to increased risks of chronic diseases, including:

  • Autoimmune disorders: As in my wife's case, triggering reactions that lead to conditions like lupus or rheumatoid arthritis.
  • Respiratory ailments: Exacerbating asthma, COPD, and lung cancer, with studies showing up to 3-year lagged effects.
  • Cardiovascular problems: Higher rates of heart attacks, strokes, and hypertension.
  • Other impacts: Mental health declines, reduced birth weights, and cognitive impairments.

Conservatively, for every premature death, smoke exposure may create 5–10 cases of long-term co-morbidities, affecting millions annually in the West and straining healthcare systems. With the 21% emissions increase, co-morbidity burdens could rise proportionally, leading to hundreds of thousands more chronic cases per year.

Annual Financial Impacts

Economic costs encompass healthcare, lost productivity, and premature mortality valuation. The UCLA study valued California's annual smoke-related costs at ~$40 billion. Extrapolating to the western U.S. (considering ~2x population but concentrated fire risks), baseline costs are estimated at $150–200 billion annually. Adjusting for the ACS 21% emissions increase, updated annual financial impacts rise to $181–242 billion. This includes:

  • Health costs: Medical treatments and hospital admissions (~$30–50 billion).
  • Lost earnings/productivity: Reduced work output from illness (~$100–125 billion nationally, prorated for West).
  • Mortality valuation: ~$8–10 million per premature death, totaling significant portions (but adjusted downward for overlap with other costs).

These figures exclude broader wildfire damages (e.g., property loss), focusing on smoke-specific impacts. Projections indicate these could double by mid-century without intervention.

Implications and Recommendations for the Western U.S.

The western U.S., including Siskiyou County and the CA-OR border regions, faces disproportionate risks due to terrain, climate, and fuel accumulation. Recent events like the 2025 Los Angeles wildfires highlight how smoke travels, affecting distant populations. Climate change exacerbates this, contributing substantially to smoke-related deaths in western states (e.g., 26.8–38.3% in some analyses for 2006–2020).

To mitigate:

  • Restore Ecological Balance: Implement the Wild Horse Fire Brigade by rewilding American wild horses to naturally reduce grass and brush fuels, preventing hotter fires and novel toxin formation.
  • Enhance Monitoring and Policy: Fund advanced air quality modeling and health surveillance, incorporating full-volatility emissions.
  • Community Resilience: Invest in smoke filtration, early warning systems, and prescribed burns under controlled conditions.
  • Legislative Action: Prioritize federal and state funding for herbivory restoration over costly, ineffective alternatives.

This report underscores that continued inaction is no longer defensible. Science has caught up to my warnings—now is the time for change to save lives and billions in costs. I urge you to engage and act.

Sincerely, William E. Simpson II (direct ph: 858. 212-5762)

Full References (with Hyperlinks Spelled Out)

  1. GrazeLIFE - Wild horse fire brigade: lessons in rebalancing North American ecosystems by rewilding equids (November 1, 2019). grazelife.com/blog/...quids/
  2. Sierra Nevada Ally - Wild Horse Wars (April 5, 2021). sierranevadaally.org/2021/04/05/wild-horse-wars/
  3. Pagosa Daily Post - OPINION: Wild Horses vs Cattle, and Why the Difference Matters (April 4, 2023). pagosadailypost.com/2023/04/04/opinion-wild-horses-vs-cattle-and-why-the-difference-matters/
  4. Siskiyou News - Apathy, Greed & Dogma Regarding Wildfires & Toxic Smoke Is Killing Americans (June 8, 2023). www.siskiyou.news/2023/...icans/
  5. Siskiyou News - Salute to the Heritage Herd of Wild Horses of the Cascade-Siskiyou Mountains (June 30, 2023). www.siskiyou.news/2023/...tains/
  6. Siskiyou News - Prescribed burning: 'A Bad Prescription for What Ails Our Wilderness Landscape' (June 27, 2023). www.siskiyou.news/2023/...scape/
  7. Siskiyou News - Klamath Dam Removal Project Creates Super-Fund Site (February 12, 2024). www.siskiyou.news/2024/02/12/klamath-dam-removal-project-creates-super-fund-site/
  8. Siskiyou News - The Eco-Terrorist Shell Game – The Wildlife News (May 11, 2024). www.siskiyou.news/2024/05/11/the-eco-terrorist-shell-game-the-wildlife-news/
  9. Siskiyou News - Open Letter: Serious Issues that Must NOT be Ignored (May 17, 2024). www.siskiyou.news/2024/05/17/open-letter-serious-issues-that-must-not-be-ignored/
  10. Siskiyou News - New UCLA Study Reveals Staggering Death Toll from Wildfire Smoke in California (June 9, 2024). www.siskiyou.news/2024/...ornia/
  11. Siskiyou News - Indigenous Wisdom and Eco-Cultural Fire? How Effective Is It Really? (June 10, 2024). www.siskiyou.news/2024/...eally/
  12. Pitchstone Waters - Understanding 'Wild Horse Fire Brigade' (April 28, 2022). www.pitchstonewaters.com/understanding-wild-horse-fire-brigade/
  13. Pitchstone Waters - LA FIRES: Can Saving American Wild Horses Help Reduce The Loss of Life... (February 3, 2025). www.pitchstonewaters.com/la-fi...smoke/
  14. Ginnand Topics - William E. Simpson II Talks About Wild Horses Minimizing Wildfires... (March 2, 2025). ginnandtopics.wordpress.com/2025/...-2025/
  15. Facebook Post - 2019 Press Release on Catastrophic Wildfire and Toxic Smoke (November 2, 2025, referencing 2019). www.facebook.com/groups/690832265652316/posts/1075904137145125/
  16. Facebook Post - To the Honorable Colorado Governor Jared Polis... (June 21, 2024). www.facebook.com/Offic...95985/
  17. Siskiyou News - Increased Wildfires, Toxic Smoke & Imbalanced Ecosystems... (February 7, 2025). www.siskiyou.news/2025/...ators/
  18. Siskiyou News - WildFires Are Getting Worse, Not Better - WHY? (April 9, 2025). www.siskiyou.news/2025/04/09/wildfires-are-getting-worse-not-better-why/
  19. Siskiyou News - Can Saving American Wild Horses Help Reduce The Loss of Life... (January 20, 2025). www.siskiyou.news/2025/...smoke/
  20. LinkedIn Post - Science and the Bureau of Land Management (September 27, 2023). www.linkedin.com/posts...2-6Hv4
  21. YouTube Channel - William E Simpson (November 28, 2022). www.youtube.com/@williamesimpson7296
  22. Huang, L., et al. (2025). Global Wildland Fire Emissions of Full-Volatility Organic Compounds from 1997 to 2023. Environmental Science & Technology. pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.5c10217
  23. American Chemical Society Press Release - Fires could emit more air pollution than previously estimated (December 29, 2025). www.acs.org/press...d.html
  24. HealthDay News - Study Finds Wildfire Smoke Releases More Harmful Gases Than Expected (December 30, 2025). www.healthday.com/healt...pected
  25. Connolly, R., et al. (2024). Mortality attributable to PM2.5 from wildland fires in California from 2008 to 2018. Science Advances, 10(23), eadl1252. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adl1252

Additional Supporting References (Recent Studies on National/Western U.S. Smoke Mortality and Costs):

  1. Qiu, M., et al. (2025). Wildfire smoke mortality burden under climate change. Nature. www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09611-w (Estimates ~40,000 annual U.S. excess deaths from wildfire smoke 2011–2020, projecting up to ~70,000 by 2050; western U.S. faces largest increases.)
  2. Nassikas, N.J., et al. (2025). Anthropogenic climate change contributes to wildfire particulate matter and related mortality in the United States. Communications Earth & Environment. www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02314-0 (164,000 total U.S. deaths from wildfire PM2.5 2006–2020; climate change contributed ~15,000, with higher proportions in western states: 26.8–38.3%.)
  3. Burke, M., et al. (various 2025 reports). Multiple sources citing ~40,000 annual U.S. premature deaths from wildfire smoke in recent decade, with projections of rising burdens and economic damages up to $600+ billion annually by mid-century.

Capt. William E. Simpson II - USMM Ret.
Founder - Exec. Director - Wild Horse Fire Brigade
Ethologist - Author - Conservationist
Wild Horse Ranch
P.O. Bx. 202 - Yreka, CA 96097
Phone: 858. 212-5762
Wild Horse Fire Brigade (https://www.wildhorsefirebrigade.org/)

William E. Simpson II is an ethologist living among and studying free-roaming native species American wild horses. William is the award-winning producer of the micro-documentary film 'Wild Horses'.  He is the author of a new Studyabout the behavioral ecology of wild horses, two published books and more than 500 published articles on subjects related to wild horses, wildlife, wildfire, and public land (forest) management. He has appeared on NBC NEWS, ABC NEWS, CBS NEWS, theDoveTV and has been a guest on numerous talk radio shows including the Lars Larson Show, the Bill Meyer Show, NPR Jefferson Public Radio and NPR National Radio, Global News, The Guardian, and AM BEST TV.

Check out William's Film Freeway account for films, studies, TV & radio interviews, and more HERE:  https://filmfreeway.com/WilliamESimpsonII